Lietuvos statistikos darbai 2019-09-17T20:42:41+03:00 Marijus Radavičius Open Journal Systems <p>Founded in 1990. Publishes articles on the statistical theory and methodology, on the application of statistics in economic, physical, technological, biomedical and social sciences, analyses statistical methods in official statistics, on the investigation of the history of statistics.&nbsp;</p> Editorial Board and Table of Contents 2019-05-21T10:48:02+03:00 Aleksandras Plikusas <p>[text in English and Lithuanian]</p> 2018-12-20T00:00:00+02:00 ##submission.copyrightStatement## National Economic Activities in the Past and In the Future 2019-09-17T20:42:41+03:00 Stanislovas Algimantas Martišius <p>[full article and abstract in Lithuanian; abstract in English]</p> <p>Lithuanian economy, over the last century, has been subject to significant changes and various vicissitudes. After restoring its independence (1918), Lithuania had to start everything from the very beginning, i.e. as soon as possible to commence the development of its own economy under challenging and complex political conditions. Small and medium-sized business, crafts, retail trade were the first significant changes. Unfortunately, Lithuania, at that time, was missing its own independent, entrepreneurial, life-innovation-sensitive entrepreneurs' layer. The foregoing was determined both by objective (the global economic crisis) and subjective (lack of working capital, negligible purchasing power, public institutions' red tape, etc.) reasons. The inter-war period was too short for Lithuania's economy to obtain the best possible results though certain conditions were ensured, and much solid work was done in the field of social policy. Current politicians and economists still have what to learn from that time political insight, economic rationality, legislative technique. Unfortunately, the Second World War and the subsequent authoritarian character of the Soviet Union's economy influenced the nature of Lithuania's economy, irrational attitude towards its changes taking place at that time. For very many, restoration of independence was unexpected. It was necessary to start managing Lithuanian economy in the absence of almost any practical, scientific expertise and input so that to begin objective and significant economic reforms. In order to focus on European management standards, Lithuania should substantially improve its management in all activity fields. Unfortunately, Lithuania's science is still lacking the applied research orientation, natural connection of theory and practice. Becoming a Member State of the European Union, we should manage to realize ourselves. Only universal prosperity, high level of cultural and well educated youth, as well as proper and sufficient understanding of democracy ideals will enable Lithuania to speed up its efforts and to become a full member of the free EU.</p> <p>Marginal efficiency theory, Keynesian view, neoclassical attitude towards economics, Monetarism, Neoliberalism and institutionalists' attitudes, hopefully, will promote the efforts to form a base of uniform researches, favorable for political scientists and economists. Creation of macroeconomics, undoubtedly, is a major achievement of the 20th Century economics. Nobel Prize Laureates: Milton Friedman, James Tobin, Franco Modigliani, Lawrence R. Klein, Robert M. Solow and other famous scientists are the most prominent contributors in this field. Regretfully, the reverse process still often happens on the Lithuanian revival path: fragmentation of social sciences, i.e. theoretical researches are prevailing over the empirical studies in the field of social sciences abroad. Lithuania, however, is still lacking the same. The number of successors of the interwar-period intellectuals (D. Cesevičius, D. Budrys, P. Padalskis and others) is alarmingly low. Current economists do not have enough consistency and are not well prepared from the theoretical point of view. In my opinion, teaching assignments of the mathematized economic theory for the 21st Century's future economists shall be notably reinforced and enhanced. Furthermore, they should be able themselves not only to interpret such theories, but also to create new ones. Full symbiosis of the economic theory and practice is of vital importance.</p> 2018-12-20T00:00:00+02:00 ##submission.copyrightStatement## Are people with children happier than childless in Lithuania? Sources and methods of assessment 2019-09-17T20:42:33+03:00 Dovilė Galdauskaitė <p>[full article and abstract in Lithuanian; abstract in English]</p> <p>Fertility decline and unstable fertility rates are currently observed in developed countries, including Lithuania. To account for these undergoing instabilities new theories and methods of formal demography have been proposed. The aim of this research is to analyse links between fertility and happiness in Lithuania. This study is based on a newly developed theory that links happiness and childbearing. The study refers to data analysis of three international level surveys – Fertility and Family (1994-1995), Population and Policy Acceptance (2001) and Generations and Gender (2006). The main method of analysis – binary logistic regression. Results of data analysis support the hypothesis, that there is a relationship between happiness and fertility, although ambiguous.</p> 2018-12-20T00:00:00+02:00 ##submission.copyrightStatement## Evaluation of Long-Term Unemployment Trends and Regional Differences in Lithuania 2019-09-17T20:42:26+03:00 Arūnas Pocius Rasa Miežienė <p>[full article and abstract in Lithuanian; abstract in English]</p> <p>This article is based on the results of the project ‘Regional disparities of welfare in Lithuania’ (project number GER-005/2017) of the National Research Programme ‘Welfare society’. The project was funded by the Lithuanian Research Council. The aim of the publication is to analyse the trends of long-term unemployment in Lithuania, as well as to assess differences in the context of other EU countries. The main priority of this publication is the assessment of regional differences of long-term unemployment in Lithuania – the data are analysed in urban and rural areas, as well as in different municipalities of Lithuania. In the course of the analysis, data from Statistics Lithuania, Eurostat and Employment Service were used.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> 2018-12-20T00:00:00+02:00 ##submission.copyrightStatement## Trends in Adolescent Fertility: EU Context and Regional Differentiation in Lithuania 2019-09-17T20:42:18+03:00 Vaida Tretjakova Gintarė Pociūtė-Sereikienė Rūta Ubarevičienė <p>[full article and abstract in Lithuanian; abstract in English]</p> <p>The aim of this article is to analyse changes in adolescent fertility in the Member States of the European Union and Lithuania. We have investigated trends in adolescent fertility rate (number of live births per 1000 women aged 15-19 years) during the period of 2001-2015, examined the extent of the changes and explored spatial differentiation at the municipality level in Lithua-nia. In addition to the analysis of the 15-19 year old age group, the present paper also includes analysis of the sub-groups of 15-17 and 18-19 year olds. Calculations are based on the vital registration data on fertility in the EUROSTAT database (for the EU coun-tries) and the data provided specifically for this project by Statistics Lithuania in accordance to the contract for the provision of con-fidential statistical data for scientific purposes (for the municipalities of Lithuania).</p> 2018-12-20T00:00:00+02:00 ##submission.copyrightStatement## Application of Regression Analysis to Big Data 2019-09-17T20:42:11+03:00 Indrė Baltušninkaitė Nomeda Bratčikovienė <p>[full article and abstract in Lithuanian; abstract in English]</p> <p>Opportunities and challenges of regression analysis for big data are investigated in the present article. Firstly, the main characteristics describing big data are identified and explained, and then potential challenges that arise in big data analytics are identified. According to the identified challenges, some methods used in the regression analysis for big data are proposed. These methods reduce the calculation burden and select variables that best describe the response variable, thus achieving sufficient statisti-cal accuracy and reducing costs and time of calculations. One of the main purposes of this article is to apply the methods for real data set. Simulation and real data regression models are formed and parameters are estimated using divided regression and regression based on leverage techniques. The LASSO and LARS regressions are used to select the best subset of variables. Finally, model diag-nostics, accuracy estimation and comparisons of results are performed.</p> 2018-12-20T00:00:00+02:00 ##submission.copyrightStatement## Monitoring and Reporting Of Quality in Statistics 2019-09-17T20:42:04+03:00 Laura Lukšaitė-Balakauskienė <p>[full article, abstract in English; abstract in Lithuanian]</p> <p>The present paper introduces the main principles of the quality management system of Statistics Lithuania, which is based on the ISO 9001 standard, and explains how the system promotes user confidence in statistics through the regular quality monitoring and reporting exercise. It is explained how the quality of statistics is measured and presented to the public; the usefulness of quality reports to the users, especially to researchers and academia, is discussed. Moreover, some results from the monitoring exercise and examples of quality reports are presented.</p> 2018-12-20T00:00:00+02:00 ##submission.copyrightStatement##