Ekonomika https://www.journals.vu.lt/ekonomika <p>Founded in 1960.&nbsp;Dedicated to publishing articles analysing the current economy, sectoral situation and development of business strategies for local and foreign markets, which contributes directly to Central and Eastern European economic development.</p> Vilnius University Press en-US Ekonomika 1392-1258 <p>Please read the Copyright Notice in&nbsp;<a href="http://www.zurnalai.vu.lt/ekonomika/journalpolicy">Journal Policy</a>.&nbsp;</p> Modeling of Economic Convergence Processes in Eastern Europe Countries https://www.journals.vu.lt/ekonomika/article/view/21052 <p>The article describes the features of the processes of economic convergence in the countries of Eastern Europe for the last 10 years. The analysis of β- and σ-convergence was carried out based on a system of macroeconomic indicators with 10 key parameters. The calculation of the direction and speed of convergence was performed using the econometric instruments in the region as a whole and pairwise analysis of the β-convergence index for all analyzed countries. The obtained results allowed to conclude the inequity development of Eastern European countries and the lack of a stable trend towards convergence of macroeconomic indicators. The resulting model is universal and can be applied to other world regions or to determine the processes of convergence of another system of macroeconomic indicators and choose main directions of reforming to bring national economies closer and achieve stronger external relations.</p> Andriy V. Stavytskyy Maryna B. Kozub Copyright (c) 2020 Authors http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 2020-11-16 2020-11-16 99 2 6 19 10.15388/Ekon.2020.2.1 Volatility Modeling for Currency Pairs and Stock Indices by Means of Complex Networks https://www.journals.vu.lt/ekonomika/article/view/21053 <p><strong>&nbsp;</strong>Financial markets are complex systems. Network analysis is an innovative method for improving data sharing and knowledge discovery in financial data.<strong>&nbsp;</strong>Oriented weighted networks were created for the Shanghai Composite, S&amp;P500, DAX30, CAC40, Nikkei225, FTSE100, IBEX35 indexes, for CNY-JPY, EUR-USD, GBP-EUR, RUB-CNY and for cryptocurrency BTC-USD. We considered data since January 6, 2006 to September 6, 2019<strong>.&nbsp;</strong>The complex networks had a similar structure for both types of markets, which was divided into the central part (core) and the outer one (loops). The emergence of such a structure reflects the fact that, for the most part, the stock and currency markets develop around some significant state of volatility, but occasionally anomalies occur when the states of volatility deviate from the core. Comparing the topology of evolutionary networks and the differences found for the stock and currency markets networks, we can conclude that stock markets are characterized by a greater variety of volatility patterns than currency ones. At the same time, the cryptocurrency market network showed a special mechanism of volatility evolution compared to the currency and stock market networks.</p> Olena Liashenko Tetyana Kravets Anastasiya Filogina Copyright (c) 2020 Authors http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 2020-11-16 2020-11-16 99 2 20 38 10.15388/Ekon.2020.2.2 An Assessment of House Loans Cointegration with Macro Variables in Selected Euro Zone Countries https://www.journals.vu.lt/ekonomika/article/view/21054 <p>This paper performs an empirical study on house loans, interest rates, unemployment, and house rent prices relationship in Germany, France, Spain and Italy from the year 2003 to 2018. We look for the cointegration and causality relationship between the house loans and macro variables with the help of the Vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger causality methods. We investigate whether variables with monthly data explain better the relationship and causal effects between the variables. We find a long term cointegrating relationship between the real house loans and interest rates, unemployment and house rent prices for France, Spain, and Italy, but not for Germany. On average the equilibrium in house loan development is reached from 4 to 8 years, meaning that long term equilibrium exists, but the variables reach it in a rather long time period. The ECB deposit facility rate included as an exogenous variable in four countries gained no significant power in explaining the short term changes of house loans in any of the country. We reveal a complex interaction between the bank’s credits and unemployment, interest rates, house rental prices in the paper.&nbsp;</p> Kazys Kupčinskas Arvydas Paškevičius Copyright (c) 2020 Authors http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 2020-11-16 2020-11-16 99 2 39 58 10.15388/Ekon.2020.2.3 The economic culture of the polish countryside in the process of 9. changes – an outline of the issues https://www.journals.vu.lt/ekonomika/article/view/19692 <p>The paper The Economic culture of the Polish countryside in the Process of Changes – an outline of issues sets up a thesis that the transformation process has a multidimensional character and that its final effect is decided by an interaction between the organizational-institutional and mental-cultural level. Drawing attention to the cultural aspect increases the accuracy of the formulated diagnoses, explanations and prognoses. The author’s arguments are based on three elements. Firstly, she indicates the theoretical aspects of understanding the economic culture – the ways of defining and operation; secondly, she discusses the essential components of the traditional economic culture of the countryside, indicating the impact that the traditional value system has on contemporary economic attitudes and mentality. Thirdly, she points out how the changes connected with the transformation process exert an influence on modification of the crucial elements of this culture, adapting it to the requirements of contemporary world.</p> Grażyna Krzyminiewska Copyright (c) 2009 Grażyna Krzyminiewska https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 2020-09-14 2020-09-14 99 2 81 89 10.15388/Ekon.2009.0.5126 Short-Term Forecast of Ukrainian Economy Including Shadow Sector Using Causal Simulation Model https://www.journals.vu.lt/ekonomika/article/view/17223 <p>A new causal simulation model of economic development was created, which comprehensively in detail and fully reflects various types of legal and shadow economic activities and their interrelations.<br>The model is used to forecast the whole (legal and shadow) country’s economy up to 2022.<br>The dynamics of shadow and legal indicators are different.<br>The biggest and most important difference is about exports and imports. Official statistics give a negative balance of the Ukrainian foreign trade of Ukraine in 2019-22. However, total export, determined by the model, considerably exceeds imports, so actually we expect a surplus.<br>This is very important for the National Bank: its policy based on the official (legal) negative balance of Ukraine foreign trade should be one (throw foreign currency reserves into the market or to devalue the hryvnia), but with the actual balance that includes shadow flows and is positive, - contrary one (to buy currency on the market or to revalue the national currency).<br>Our model calculates how the production volumes of all types of goods and services should change to ensure that supply and demand are balanced. These numbers can serve a reference for manufacturers.<br>We suggested that the relevant Ukrainian authorities take an active position in the implementation of the developed forecast for the economic development of Ukraine: measuring actual rates of changes in the production of these types of goods during the year, they provide recommendations to producers to increase or decrease their production.</p> Yuriy Vasylenko Copyright (c) 2020 Yuriy Vasylenko https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 2020-06-11 2020-06-11 99 2 131 145 10.15388/Ekon.2020.1.8 The Evaluation of the Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on the Performance of Listed Real Estate Companies and Reits https://www.journals.vu.lt/ekonomika/article/view/17221 <p>Using quarterly data from 2006:Q1 to 2019:Q3 (55 observations), this paper examines 18 Eurozone macroeconomic variables that represent monetary policy, external and construction sectors’ performance, economic growth, investment, households’ earnings, inflation and assesses their impact on the performance of the European listed real estate companies and REITs. Empirical results demonstrate that the European listed real estate market is strongly influenced by the supply side: the construction sector and the inflation of producers’ prices; while the demand side is strongly affected by the expansionary monetary policy of ECB. Furthermore, some primary findings propose that US expansionary monetary policy shocks have an effect on the European listed real estate market. This conclusion demands further thorough research.</p> Viktorija Cohen Arūnas Burinskas Copyright (c) 2020 Viktorija Cohen | Arūnas Burinskas https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 2020-06-11 2020-06-11 99 2 79 92 10.15388/Ekon.2020.1.5 Editorial Board and Table of Contents https://www.journals.vu.lt/ekonomika/article/view/18373 <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> Algirdas Miškinis Copyright (c) 2020 Authors http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 2020-06-11 2020-06-11 99 2 1 5 Author Guidelines and Bibliographic Data https://www.journals.vu.lt/ekonomika/article/view/18374 <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> Algirdas Miškinis Copyright (c) 2020 Authors http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 2020-06-11 2020-06-11 99 2 147 148 Exploring the Tourism-Poverty Alleviation Nexus in the Brics Groupof Nations https://www.journals.vu.lt/ekonomika/article/view/18375 <p>The tourism-poverty alleviation nexus is becoming an increasingly significant subject of academic inquiry within the tourism economics discourse. Using time series data from the World Bank (1995–2017) in a P-ARDL model, the present study explores the relationship between tourism (receipts from exports, the travel subsector, hospitality and accommodation subsector) and poverty alleviation (final household consumption) with tourism arrivals as the control variable within the context of the BRICS group. The results suggest that receipts from the travel subsector and exports met the a priori expectation – positively influencing poverty alleviation within BRICS nations in the long run. Contrastingly, receipts from the hospitality and accommodation subsector did not meet the a priori expectation of a positive sign, with the results indicating statistical insignificance in the long run. However, receipts from the hospitality and accommodation were found to only influence poverty alleviation in the short run. Relatedly, the results suggest that increases in consumption associated with growth in tourism arrivals did not influence poverty in the BRICS. The results point to the heterogeneity of the influence of tourism on poverty alleviation, whereby certain dimensions of tourism contribute to poverty alleviation in the long run and others do so in the short run. Based on these findings it is recommended that BRICS countries harness their tourism potential and promote intra-BRICS tourism to maximise the positive impact of travel and tourism export receipts on household consumption, which catalyses poverty alleviation.</p> Rufaro Garidzirai Tafadzwa Matiza Copyright (c) 2020 Authors http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 2020-06-11 2020-06-11 99 2 93 109 10.15388/10.15388/Ekon.2020.1.6 Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: The Turkish Case https://www.journals.vu.lt/ekonomika/article/view/18377 <p>The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between monetary policy and the exchange market pressure index in Turkey for the 2002–2018 period with monthly data. To obtain the foreign exchange market pressure index, this study uses the model developed by L. Girton and D.E. Roper and is based fundamentally on the monetary approach to exchange rate determination and the balance of payments. The calculated exchange market pressure index is in accordance with the developments lived in financial markets and changes in monetary policy during the period under investigation. As for the relation between exchange market pressure index and monetary policy, a VAR model was set up and a Granger type causality analysis was carried out. According to Granger causality test results, there is a unidirectional causality running from domestic credit expansion to exchange market pressure and from domestic credit expansion to interest rate differential while there is a bidirectional causality between exchange market pressure and interest rate differential. Since increasing exchange market pressure means a depreciation of the Turkish Lira, the estimated VAR model’s results support the view that the Central Bank will increase the interest rate to temper the exchange market pressure.</p> Ilyas Siklar Aysegul Akca Copyright (c) 2020 Authors http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 2020-06-11 2020-06-11 99 2 110 130 10.15388/Ekon.2020.1.7