Ekonomika https://www.journals.vu.lt/ekonomika <p>Founded in 1960.&nbsp;Dedicated to publishing articles analysing the current economy, sectoral situation and development of business strategies for local and foreign markets, which contributes directly to Central and Eastern European economic development.</p> Vilnius University Press en-US Ekonomika 1392-1258 <p>Please read the Copyright Notice in&nbsp;<a href="http://www.zurnalai.vu.lt/ekonomika/journalpolicy">Journal Policy</a>.&nbsp;</p> Short-Term Forecast of Ukrainian Economy Including Shadow Sector Using Causal Simulation Model https://www.journals.vu.lt/ekonomika/article/view/17223 <p>A new causal simulation model of economic development was created, which comprehensively in detail and fully reflects various types of legal and shadow economic activities and their interrelations.<br>The model is used to forecast the whole (legal and shadow) country’s economy up to 2022.<br>The dynamics of shadow and legal indicators are different.<br>The biggest and most important difference is about exports and imports. Official statistics give a negative balance of the Ukrainian foreign trade of Ukraine in 2019-22. However, total export, determined by the model, considerably exceeds imports, so actually we expect a surplus.<br>This is very important for the National Bank: its policy based on the official (legal) negative balance of Ukraine foreign trade should be one (throw foreign currency reserves into the market or to devalue the hryvnia), but with the actual balance that includes shadow flows and is positive, - contrary one (to buy currency on the market or to revalue the national currency).<br>Our model calculates how the production volumes of all types of goods and services should change to ensure that supply and demand are balanced. These numbers can serve a reference for manufacturers.<br>We suggested that the relevant Ukrainian authorities take an active position in the implementation of the developed forecast for the economic development of Ukraine: measuring actual rates of changes in the production of these types of goods during the year, they provide recommendations to producers to increase or decrease their production.</p> Yuriy Vasylenko Copyright (c) 2020 Yuriy Vasylenko https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 2020-06-11 2020-06-11 99 1 131 145 10.15388/Ekon.2020.1.8 The Evaluation of the Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on the Performance of Listed Real Estate Companies and Reits https://www.journals.vu.lt/ekonomika/article/view/17221 <p>Using quarterly data from 2006:Q1 to 2019:Q3 (55 observations), this paper examines 18 Eurozone macroeconomic variables that represent monetary policy, external and construction sectors’ performance, economic growth, investment, households’ earnings, inflation and assesses their impact on the performance of the European listed real estate companies and REITs. Empirical results demonstrate that the European listed real estate market is strongly influenced by the supply side: the construction sector and the inflation of producers’ prices; while the demand side is strongly affected by the expansionary monetary policy of ECB. Furthermore, some primary findings propose that US expansionary monetary policy shocks have an effect on the European listed real estate market. This conclusion demands further thorough research.</p> Viktorija Cohen Arūnas Burinskas Copyright (c) 2020 Viktorija Cohen | Arūnas Burinskas https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 2020-06-11 2020-06-11 99 1 79 92 10.15388/Ekon.2020.1.5 Editorial Board and Table of Contents https://www.journals.vu.lt/ekonomika/article/view/18373 <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> Algirdas Miškinis Copyright (c) 2020 Authors http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 2020-06-11 2020-06-11 99 1 1 5 Author Guidelines and Bibliographic Data https://www.journals.vu.lt/ekonomika/article/view/18374 <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> Algirdas Miškinis Copyright (c) 2020 Authors http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 2020-06-11 2020-06-11 99 1 147 148 Exploring the Tourism-Poverty Alleviation Nexus in the Brics Groupof Nations https://www.journals.vu.lt/ekonomika/article/view/18375 <p>The tourism-poverty alleviation nexus is becoming an increasingly significant subject of academic inquiry within the tourism economics discourse. Using time series data from the World Bank (1995–2017) in a P-ARDL model, the present study explores the relationship between tourism (receipts from exports, the travel subsector, hospitality and accommodation subsector) and poverty alleviation (final household consumption) with tourism arrivals as the control variable within the context of the BRICS group. The results suggest that receipts from the travel subsector and exports met the a priori expectation – positively influencing poverty alleviation within BRICS nations in the long run. Contrastingly, receipts from the hospitality and accommodation subsector did not meet the a priori expectation of a positive sign, with the results indicating statistical insignificance in the long run. However, receipts from the hospitality and accommodation were found to only influence poverty alleviation in the short run. Relatedly, the results suggest that increases in consumption associated with growth in tourism arrivals did not influence poverty in the BRICS. The results point to the heterogeneity of the influence of tourism on poverty alleviation, whereby certain dimensions of tourism contribute to poverty alleviation in the long run and others do so in the short run. Based on these findings it is recommended that BRICS countries harness their tourism potential and promote intra-BRICS tourism to maximise the positive impact of travel and tourism export receipts on household consumption, which catalyses poverty alleviation.</p> Rufaro Garidzirai Tafadzwa Matiza Copyright (c) 2020 Authors http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 2020-06-11 2020-06-11 99 1 93 109 10.15388/10.15388/Ekon.2020.1.6 Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: The Turkish Case https://www.journals.vu.lt/ekonomika/article/view/18377 <p>The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between monetary policy and the exchange market pressure index in Turkey for the 2002–2018 period with monthly data. To obtain the foreign exchange market pressure index, this study uses the model developed by L. Girton and D.E. Roper and is based fundamentally on the monetary approach to exchange rate determination and the balance of payments. The calculated exchange market pressure index is in accordance with the developments lived in financial markets and changes in monetary policy during the period under investigation. As for the relation between exchange market pressure index and monetary policy, a VAR model was set up and a Granger type causality analysis was carried out. According to Granger causality test results, there is a unidirectional causality running from domestic credit expansion to exchange market pressure and from domestic credit expansion to interest rate differential while there is a bidirectional causality between exchange market pressure and interest rate differential. Since increasing exchange market pressure means a depreciation of the Turkish Lira, the estimated VAR model’s results support the view that the Central Bank will increase the interest rate to temper the exchange market pressure.</p> Ilyas Siklar Aysegul Akca Copyright (c) 2020 Authors http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 2020-06-11 2020-06-11 99 1 110 130 10.15388/Ekon.2020.1.7 The Model of a Second-Hand Goods Resale Exchange under Transactional Pricing Strategy https://www.journals.vu.lt/ekonomika/article/view/16133 <p>A modern effective business model involves the use of an appropriate pricing strategy. However, not only a short-term profitability matters but also long-term clients’ loyalty. The main purpose of this paper is to present a specific transactional pricing strategy for a second-hand goods resale exchange platform, which allows to avoid possible negative outcomes of being associated with consumer discrimination. Using simulation modeling approach, it was shown how customer segmentation combined with transactional pricing can help to gain higher profitability. The model is based on the work of intelligent agents that recreate the full product lifecycle. Changing the input parameters of the model, it is possible to simulate different scenarios of a company’s activity and market conditions. The model supports the inclusion of any number of products, while its intelligent agents’ methods are still flexible to replace with other techniques. The simulation model has shown that the use of transactional pricing can increase the profitability of a business, while keeping its clients loyal.</p> Iuliia Iarmolenko Galyna Chornous Copyright (c) 2020 Iuliia Iarmolenko | Galyna Chornous https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 2020-05-07 2020-05-07 99 1 69 78 10.15388/Ekon.2020.1.4 Employment at 55+: Do We Want to work Longer in Lithuania? https://www.journals.vu.lt/ekonomika/article/view/16101 <p><strong>&nbsp;</strong>The Lithuanian population is aging, and it causes many difficulties for public finances by increasing expenditures on health care, long-term care, and pensions, and also for the labor market by creating labor shortages. One of the ways to cope with demographic aging is to rise the employment rate of older people. According to Eurostat, the employment rate of the elderly aged 55–64 years increased from 49.6 percent in 2005 to 68.5 percent in 2018 in Lithuania and it is higher than the average employment rate of older workers in European Union, which was 58.7 percent in 2018. This paper focuses on older people in Lithuania, aged 55 and over, trying to answer a question whether the elderly in Lithuania willingly work or try to find alternatives such as receiving long-term social insurance benefits. The research findings show that the activity of older people in the labor market grows, and even the share of people with disabilities staying in the labor market increases. However, this analysis also shows that older people are more under risk to lose their job during an economic crisis, and this suggests that trying to find work alternatives can be closely related to one’s economic situation. Moreover, health problems remain one of the main factors limiting the activity of older people in the labor market. It is also noticeable that some labor force reserves exist among people with disabilities and this supposes that creating better adapted working conditions for older and disabled workers in Lithuania could probably contribute to meeting the needs of an aging workforce.</p> Kristina Zitikytė Copyright (c) 2020 Kristina Zitikytė https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 2020-05-07 2020-05-07 99 1 50 68 10.15388/Ekon.2020.1.3 Effects of Energy Consumption on GDP: New Evidence of 24 Countries on Their Natural Resources and Production of Electricity https://www.journals.vu.lt/ekonomika/article/view/15141 <p>Because of rapid economic expansion, China, the USA, and India have become the largest energy producers and sources of CO2 emissions in the world. They burned over 45% of global fuels in 2016. Meanwhile, the developing strategies of 24 polluted states to decrease fossil energy consumption without additional economic output. This paper explores the effect of world top polluted countries’ CO2 emission, their GDP and production of electricity by potential indicators and identifies the basic factors that contribute to changes in an environment&nbsp;where petroleum, natural gas, coal, nuclear, biomass, and other renewable energy and hydroelectric sources are examined with GDP per capita. We estimate our data for the period from 1968 to 2017 and use the GLM model. The results show that more production of electricity is causing abnormal CO2 emissions. The Granger causality test shows that there is a unidirectional relationship between energy consumption and economic advancement. Also, there is a short-run bidirectional causality that exists among the energy indicators. We find a unilateral causality between energy consumption and economic growth. Therefore, the consumption of energy might be conductive of 24 (polluted) countries and better economic development; the consumption of energy may be failsafe and guaranteed, while we should limit the resources of countries.</p> Rabnawaz Khan YuSheng Kong Copyright (c) 2020 Rabnawaz Khan | YuSheng Kong https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 2020-05-07 2020-05-07 99 1 26 49 10.15388/Ekon.2020.1.2 The Relationships between Economic growth, Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emissions: Results for the Euro Area https://www.journals.vu.lt/ekonomika/article/view/17215 <p>The article aims at ascertaining the relationship between indicators affecting the green economic growth of the Eurozone countries. Despite extensive research, scientists have not yet found a clear answer as to whether economic growth and climate change mitigation can be aligned. Another important aspect of the study was to investigate the possible effect of environmental policies on macroeconomic variables such as GDP, investment, employment, and trade. The authors of the article applied the PVAR econometric model to measure the impact of energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and some of the macroeconomic indicators on GDP growth in 19 countries of the Eurozone for years 2000–2016.<br>Based on the results, we cannot yet state explicitly that economic growth in the Eurozone countries has been decoupled from climate change mitigation; however, green transition is on the right track.</p> Violeta Klyvienė Angelė Kėdaitienė Copyright (c) 2020 Violeta Klyviene | Angele Kedaitiene https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 2020-05-07 2020-05-07 99 1 6 25 10.15388/Ekon.2020.1.1