Transmission dynamic and backward bifurcation of Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus
Articles
Bibi Fatima
University of Malakand Chakdara
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9747-0815
Gul Zaman
University of Malakand Chakdara
Fahd Jarad
Çankaya University
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3303-0623
Published 2022-01-01
https://doi.org/10.15388/namc.2022.27.25256
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Keywords

epidemic model
reproductive number
stability analysis
backward bifurcation
numerical simulation

How to Cite

Fatima B., Zaman G. and Jarad F. (2022) “Transmission dynamic and backward bifurcation of Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus”, Nonlinear Analysis: Modelling and Control, 27(1), pp. 54-69. doi: 10.15388/namc.2022.27.25256.

Abstract

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) remains an emerging disease threat with regular human cases on the Arabian Peninsula driven by recurring camels to human transmission events. In this paper, we present a new deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of (MERS-CoV). In order to do this, we develop a model formulation and analyze the stability of the proposed model. The stability conditions are obtained in term of R0, we find those conditions for which the model become stable. We discuss basic reproductive number R0 along with sensitivity analysis to show the impact of every epidemic parameter. We show that the proposed model exhibits the phenomena of backward bifurcation. Finally, we show the numerical simulation of our proposed model for supporting our analytical work. The aim of this work is to show via mathematical model the transmission of MERS-CoV between humans and camels, which are suspected to be the primary source of infection.

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