Trade Integration and Export Aspiration: Evidence from India’s Trade in Goods with BRICS Countries
Articles
Mudaser Ahad Bhat
Christ University Lavasa-Pune, India
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2343-0877
Aamir Jamal
University of Kashmir, India
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4892-9324
Mirza Nazrana Beg
Cluster University-ASC, India
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1961-0207
Published 2022-12-22
https://doi.org/10.15388/omee.2022.13.90
PDF
HTML

Keywords

India-BRICS Trade
Export Aspiration
Gravity Model
Multilateral Trade Resistance

How to Cite

Ahad Bhat, M., Jamal, A. and Nazrana Beg, M. (2022) “Trade Integration and Export Aspiration: Evidence from India’s Trade in Goods with BRICS Countries”, Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies, 13(2), pp. 490–514. doi:10.15388/omee.2022.13.90.

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to examine the dynamics of trade between India and the BRICS countries as well as to gauge the relative strength of Indian exports to those nations. The trade integration patterns among BRICS countries were also analyzed. To quantify the extent to which India’s exports correspond to the needs of its BRICS counterparts, a novel export aspiration index was constructed. The index of trade integration patterns has also been employed to quantify India’s trade integration pattern with other BRICS members. Further, the gravity model of trade has been employed to analyze the fundamentals of India–BRICS trade. The export aspiration in individual BRICS countries shows a diverse pattern. However, India’s export aspiration in these countries has improved, although marginally in the long run. Such empirical evidence substantiates that the relative strength of India’s exports within its BRICS counterparts has marginally improved over time. Moreover, the trade integration index indicates a similar trade integration pattern among the BRICS countries and corroborates the presence of inter-industry trade. Added to the conventional variables of the gravity model, India’s outward multilateral trade resistance and BRICS inward multilateral trade resistance significantly promote India–BRICS trade. Hence, the relative strength of Indian exports will increase substantially if India’s commodity composition is diversified by including more commodities in its export baskets that correspond to the needs and changing conditions of the BRICS economies.

PDF
HTML

References

Adam, C., & Cobham, D. (2007). Modelling multilateral trade resistance in a gravity model with exchange rate regimes. In Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis Conference Paper 2007(pp. 1 –36).

Ahmad, I., Kunroo, M., & Sofi, I. (2018). An RCA Analysis of India – China Trade Integration: Present Potential and Prospects. Foreign Trade Review, 53(1), 1 –10.doi:10.1177/0015732516681885.

Ahn, J., & McQuoid, A. F. (2013). Capacity Constrained Exporters: Micro Evidence and Macro Implications. Department of Economics Working Papers 1301, Florida International University.

Anderson, J. E. (1979). A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation. The American Economic Review, 69(1), 106 –116.

Anderson, J. E., & Van Wincoop, E. (2003). Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle. The American Economic Review, 93(1), 170 –192. doi:10.1257/000282803321455214.

Antonio, A., & Troy, L. (2014). A Gravity Model Approach to Analysing the Trade Performance of CARICOM Member States. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 14(2), 145 –160.

Ali, G. (2016), Does Trade Openness have Noteworthy Effect on Bilateral tTade Flows of E.C.O. countries: An Empirical Investigation, Timisoara Journal of Economics and Business 9(2). DOI: 10.1515/tjeb-2016-0007.

Balassa, B. (1965a). Trade Liberalisation and ‘Revealed’ Comparative Advantage. The Manchester School of Economics and Social Studies, 33(2), 99-123.

Balassa, B. (1977b). ‘Revealed’ Comparative Advantage Revisited: An Analysis of Relative Export Shares of the Industrial Countries, 1953-1971. The Manchester School of Economics and Social Studies, 45(4), 327–344.

Batra, A. (2004). India's Global Trade Potential: The Gravity Model Approach. (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, Working Paper No. 151).

Bergstrand, J. H. (1989). The Generalised Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and Empirical Evidence. Review of Economics and Statistics, 71, 143-153.

Beyene, G. H. (2014). Trade Integration and Revealed Comparative Advantages of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asian Merchandise Export. Foreign Trade Review, 49(2), 163-176. DOI: 10.1177/0015732514525170.

Beyene, G. H. (2015). BRICS and Sub-Saharan Africa trade interdependence and peace: Evidence based on revealed comparative advantages. Journal of Law, Society and Development, 2(1), 4–28.

Bhat, P. T., Guha, A. & Paul, M. (2006). India and China in WTO - building complementarities and competitiveness in the external trade sector. Institute for Studies in Industrial Development, 1-244.

Bhattacharya, R. & Banerjee, T. (2006). Does the Gravity Model Explain India's Direction of Trade? A Panel Data Approach. (Working paper No. 2006-09-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India).

Carbaugh, J. R. (2008). International Economics (7th ed). Thomson South-Western, Canada.

Chakravarty, S. L, Chakrabarty, R. (2014). A Gravity Model Approach to Indo-ASEAN Trade Fuctuations and Swings. Procedia: Social and Behavioral Sciences, 133, 383–391.

Chaney, T. (2008). Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade. American Economic Review, 98(4), 1707 –1721.

Chatterjee, B., Jena, P., & Sing, S. (2014). Intra-BRICS Trade and its Implications for India. (Discussion Paper, CUTS International) www.cutsinternational.org

Chen, L. (2012). The BRICS in the Global Value Chains: An Empirical Note. Cuadernos de Economía, 31(57), 221 –239.

Chychkalo-Kondratska, I., Bezrukova, N., & Svichkar, V. (2017). New “Stars” of Global Economy: TICKS comes to replace BRICS. Journal of International Studies, 10(3), 24 –34, doi :https://dx.doi:org/10.14254/2017-8330.217/10-3/2

Deardorff, A. V. (1998). Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical Work. In J. A. Frank (Ed.), The Regionalisation of the World Economy (pp. 7-32). Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.

Degaut, M. (2015). Do the BRICS Still Matter? (A Report of the CSIS Americas Program).

Dinc er Gonul. (2014). Turkey's Rising Imports from BRICS: A Gravity Model Approach. (MPRA Paper No. 61979. University Library of Munich, Germany).

Dougherty, C. (2011). Introduction to Econometrics (4th ed.). Oxford University Press.

Eaton, J., & S. Khortum (2002). Technology, Geography and Trade. Econometrica, 70(5), 1741–1779.

Egger, P. (2002). An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials. The World Economy, 25(2), 297–312.

Ekanayake, E., Mukherjee, A., & Veeramacheneni, B. (2010). Trade Blocs and Gravity Model: A Study of Economic Integration among Asian Developing Countries. Journal of Economic Integration, 25(4), 627–643.

Farah, P. D. (2006). Five Years of China's WTO Membership: EU and US Perspectives on China's Compliance with Transparency Commitments and Transitional Review Mechanism. Legal Issues of Economic Integration, 33(3), 263–304.

Gujarati, D. (2015). Econometrics by Example (2nd ed.). Palgrave UK.

Halpin, T. (2009, June 17). Brazil, Russia, India, and China formed a bloc to challenge US dominance. The Times.

Hausmann, R., Hwang, J., & Rodrik, D. (2005). What You Export Matters. (CID Working Paper Series 2005.123, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, December 2005).

Havlik, P., & Stöllinger, R. (2009). EU and BRICs: Challenges and opportunities for European competitiveness and cooperation. (Industrial Policy and Economic Reform Papers No. 13).

Head, K. (2003).Gravity for Beginners. University of British Columbia.

Helpman, E., M. Metliz., & Y. Rubinstein. (2008). Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 103(2), 441–467.

Hillman, A. L. (1980). Observations on the relations between "revealed comparative advantage" and comparative advantage as indicated by pre-trade relative prices. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 116, 315–321 . DOI: 10.1007/BF02696859.

Hooijmaaijers, B. (2021). China, the BRICS, and the limitations of reshaping global economic governance. The Pacific Review, 34(1), 29–55.

I-Hui Cheng., & H.J. Wall. (2005). Controlling for Heterogeneity in Gravity Models of Trade and Integration. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 87( Jan), 49–63.

Judge, G. G., Hill, R. C., Griffiths, W. E., Lutkepohl, H., & Lee, L. C. (1985). Introduction to the Theory and Practice of Econometrics (2nd ed.). New York: John Wiley and Sons.

Kansra, P., Kumar, P., Mahapatra, S. K., & Oberoi, S. (2021). Economic concert, cooperation and trade specialisation of India in comparison with rest of BRICS nations. International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, 14(6), 580–602.

Khan S, & Khan AT. (2020). India's Trade Relation with BRICS Countries and Issues of Sustainability. Management and Economics Research Journal, 6(S5), 9900028. https://doi.org/10.18639/MERJ.2020.9900028

Khayat, H. S. (2019). A gravity model analysis for trade between the GCC and developed countries. Cogent Economics & Finance, 7(1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2019.1703440

Käkönen, J. (2019). Global change: BRICS and the pluralist world order. Third World Thematics: A TWQ Journal, 4(6), 415–423.

Kocourek, A. (2015). Structural Changes in Comparative Advantage of the BRICS. Procedia —Social and Behavioral Sciences, 172,10–17.

Lohani, K. K. (2020). Trade Flow of India with BRICS Countries: A Gravity Model Approach. Global Business Review, https://doi.org/10.1177/0972150920927684.

Máñez, J. A., Rochina, M. E., & Llopis, J. A. S. (2008). Sunk Cost Hysteresis in Spanish Manufacturing Exports. Review of World Economics, 144, 272–294.

Maryam, J., & Mittal, A. (2019). An empirical analysis of India's trade in goods with BRICS. International Review of Economics, 66(4), 399–421. https://dx.doi:org/10.1007/s12232-019-00328-7

Mishra, A. K., Gadhia, J. N., & Sahoo, M. (2015). Trade Flows between India and Other BRICS Countries: An Empirical Analysis Using Gravity Model. Global Business Review, 16(1), 107–122.

Nori, U., & Mishra, R. K. (2021). An analysis of trade flows between BRICS and European Union: A quantitative assessment. Transnational Corporations Review, 13(4), 394-405. doi: 10.1080/19186444.2021.1875732

Pant, H. V. (2013). The BRICS Fallacy. The Washington Quarterly, 36(3), 91–105.

Pant, M. (2013). India and the BRIC's Ccountries: Issues of Trade and Technology. In S. Mathur & M. Dasgupta (Eds.), BRICS: Trade Policies, Institutions and Areas of Deepening Cooperation (pp.163–191). Centre for WTO Studies.

Paudel, R. C.(2014). Liberalisation reform and export performance of India. (ASARC Working Paper 03).

Peng Lu (2014). A comparative analysis of political confidence in the BRICS countries, Japanese Journal of Political Science, 15(3), 417–441.

Pingyao, L., & Jingyun, W. (2012). Opportunities and Challenges fFced by the Cooperation of BRICS. Statistical Research, 29(2), 21–27.

Radulescu, I. G., Panait, M. & Voica, C. (2014). BRICS Countries Challenge to the World Economy New Trends. Procedia Economics and Finance, 8, 605–613.

Raghuramapatruni, R. (2015). Revealed Comparative Advantage and Competitiveness: A Study on BRICS, Arabian Journal of Business and Management Review, 5(152), 10–7, doi: https://dx.doi:org/10.4172/2223-5833.1000152

Rahman, M., Fatima, Z., & Rahman, N. (2020). Quantitative dynamics of intra-BRICS trade. BRICS Journal of Economics, 1(4), 6–23. https://doi.org/10.38050/2712-7508-2020-1-4-2

Rahman, M. M. (2006). A Panel Data Analysis of Bangladesh's Trade: The Gravity Model Approach. [PhD Dissertation, University of Sydney, Sydney].

Rani, R., & Kumar, N. (2018). Panel Data Analysis of Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth: Evidence from BRICS Countries. Emerging Economy Studies, 4(1), 1–18, doi: https://dx.doi:org/10.1177/2394901518767023.

Rasoulinezhad, E., & Jabalameli, F. (2018). Do BRICS Countries Have Similar Trade Integration Patterns? Journal of Economic Integration, 33(1), 1011–1045, doi: https://dx.doi:org/10.11130/jei.2018.33.1.1011

Saji, G., T. (2019). Does Economic Integration Really Improve Trade Competitiveness? The Case of BRICS. Economic Affairs, 64(3), 469–480.

Sen, S. (2017). BRICS and the New Financial Architecture, Economic & Political Weekly, 52(11), 25–27.

Seyoum, B. (2007). Revealed comparative advantage and competitiveness in services: A study with special emphasis on developing countries. Journal of Economic Studies, 34(5), 376–388. https://doi.org/10.1108/01443580710823194

Singh, A., Dhania, R., Upasani, R., & Mathur, S. K. (2011). Analysing the Trade Flows for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS), Available at. https://www.scribd.com/doc/ 63710945/Analyzing-the-Trade-Flows-for-BRICS

Singla, K., S. (2015). An Analysis of India's Export Performance with China. Foreign Trade Review, 50(3) 219–230.

Surugiu, M.R. & Surugiu, C. (2015). International Trade, Globalisation and Economic Interdependence between European Countries: Implications for Businesses and Marketing Framework. Procedia Economics and Finance, 32, 131–138.

Tantri, L. M., & Shaurav, K. (2018). Food security in BRICS – Current status and issues. (Working Paper No. 419, The Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore).

Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions for an International Economic Policy. New York: The Twentieth Century Fund.

United Nations. (2019). What is 'South-South cooperation' and why does it matter? https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/intergovernmental-coordination/south-south-cooperation-2019. html.

Vannoorenberghe, G. (2012). Firm-level volatility and exports. Journal of International Economics, 86, 57–67.

Wagner, J. (2007). Exports and Productivity: A Survey of the Evidence from Firm-level Data. World Economy, 30(1), 60–82.

Wang, P., Zhao, Y., & Chu, L. (2018). Analysis of Competition and Complementarity in the BRICS Export Products. In Proceedings of the 4th Annual International Conference on Management, Economics and Social Development (ICMESD 2018), (pp. 847–857). Atlantis Press.

Wani, N., & Dhami J. (2016). Trade Potential of India Against BRICS Economies: An Empirical Analysis Based on Gravity Model. (MPRA Paper No. 91785).

Wilson, D., & Roopa P. (2003). Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050. (Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper No. 99).

Woo, J. (2012). Technological Upgrading in China and India: What do we know? (OECD Development Centre Working Paper No. 308).

Yarygina, I. Z., & Zhiglyaeva, A. V. (2021). Trade and Economic Cooperation Within BRICS: Actual Problems and Prospects. In: O. G. Shakirova, , O. V Bashkov, & A. A. Khusainov (Eds.), Current Problems and Ways of Industry Development: Equipment and Technologies (pp. 919-929). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-69421-0_102

Yarygina, I. Z., & Zhiglyaeva, A.V., Vershinina, V. O., & Kuvshinova, A. Y. (2021). Trade and Economic Cooperation of BRICS: Problems and Prospects. Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, 9(6), 89–104.

Yue, C. (2001). Comparative Advantage, Exchange Rate and Exports in China. Paper for the international conference on Chinese economy, CERDI, France.

Export–Import Bank of India. (2020). BRICS: Promoting Trade, Investment and Business Cooperation. BRICS Business Council India Chapter. https://www.eximbankindia.in/Assets/Dynamic/PDF/Publication

Most read articles by the same author(s)

1 2 3 4 5 > >>